Friday, 12 September 2008

Is a further short in September 08 after the recent political outbreak

Expecting KLCI to further move south due these few days further outbreak in the local politics in Malaysia. I would recommend investor to stop bargain hunting because it is highly unstable and uncertain for the local bourse.

Holding up bluechip is still optimistic but political related stocks are advised to stay in sideline or start to sell off to cut loss. If the turnmoil continue, yet to be tested political counters on corporate governance and performance may face further huge challenge in the coming year.

Also, stay away commodities related counters associated with Palm Oil, Steel, Oil & etc as it yet to find bottom in the coming months for this cycle of commodities worldwide correction. I am forecasting a more long term corection cause a stronger dollar couple with a mild recovery of US economy may aso tempt FED to increase interest rate by a 25 basis point in 2009. Thus, is a 6-12 months correction.

The best bet is still REITs with STARHILL, AXREIT and BSDREIT to be maintained a strong buy call but must base on 8% ROI with every entrance of the trust. As these trust profits are more mature and would be able to house through this worldwide and local crisis.

KLCI will test 1000 level personally i feel it is fragile, Dow Jones will still range bound between 10,800 to 11,800. Asian bourses may be further sell off due to renew concern in European countries slow down. A potential of another 5-10% before a more stable environment.

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